EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL ON LINSEED PRODUCTIVITY: A CASE STUDY OF INDIA

El-Bannan, Ahmed A.A.M.; Hassan, A.A.; Morsi, A.M.

doi:10.21608/zjar.2025.451787

EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL ON LINSEED PRODUCTIVITY: A CASE STUDY OF INDIA

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Nat. Res. Dept., Fac. Graduate Asian Studies, Zagazig Univ., Egypt

² Agric. Sci. Dept., Coll. Technol. Dev., Zagazig Univ., Egypt

³ Agron. Dept., Agric. Res. Cent., Giza, Egypt

10.21608/zjar.2025.451787

Abstract

India is situated north of the equator between 8°4' north to 37°6' north latitude and 68°7' to 97°25' east longitude. It is the seventh largest country in the world; its total area is 3,287,263 square kilometers. Linseed (Linum usitatissimum L.) is one of the most important industrial oilseed crops in India. It is cultivated for the oil extracted from seeds or stem fiber. All parts of the linseed plant are used commercially, either directly or after processing. Temperature and rainfall are exogenous variables beyond the control of farmers, and fluctuations in temperature and rainfall are completely natural. It has been observed that fluctuations in temperature and rainfall lead to fluctuations in production, which in turn leads to changes in prices. Given the importance of temperature and rainfall in determining agricultural production and prices, the study sought to forecast monthly temperature and rainfall in India with the help of time series analysis using monthly rainfall data. This study aims to analyze the impact of temperature and rainfall changes on linseed productivity. To achieve this objective, the distribution of temperature and rainfall in India was evaluated, the current impacts of temperature and rainfall changes on linseed productivity from 1990 to 2025 were studied, and the future impacts of temperature and rainfall changes on linseed productivity from 2026 to 2061 were projected. This study collected monthly climatic data from the World Bank database for India. The variables included air temperature and rainfall. Graphs were created to visualize changes over time. The data were visualized using Boxplot. The temperature shows an overall increasing trend, this indicates that the temperature has been rising at an average rate of approximately 0.0242°C per year, starting from a base of around 20.84°C. The coefficient of determination (R² = 0.3136) suggests a moderate level of fit, meaning that about 31.36% of the variability in temperature can be explained by the passage of time., confirming that warming is expected to persist in the coming decades. The extremely low R² value indicates that time does not explain any meaningful portion of the variability in rainfall. The productivity has nearly tripled from ~0.29 t/ha in 1990 to ~0.74 t/ha in 2025, showing substantial agricultural development and R² = 0.8398

Keywords

Main Subjects